Industrial upgrading determines the fate of China'

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As PMI rises, industrial upgrading determines the fate of China's manufacturing industry

when people are immersed in the joy of the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, China's important macroeconomic indicator PIM is also released as scheduled. According to the data released by the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, the purchasing managers' index of China's manufacturing industry in September was 54.3%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, the highest since May last year, suggesting that China's manufacturing activity was expanding for the seventh consecutive month

we have noticed that since March this year, China's manufacturing PMI index has remained above 50% for as long as half a year. The East, middle and West PMI indexes and the PMI indexes of enterprises with different ownership types, such as state-owned enterprises, joint stock limited companies, limited companies and foreign-invested enterprises, also show the same trend, which indicates that the regional economy continues to rebound and the microeconomic vitality of enterprises is constantly increasing. If we look at the 20 industries, 15 industries were higher than 50% in September, and 3 industries reached more than 60%. Obviously, the general rebound trend of China's industry has basically taken shape

since the Fourth Plenary Session of the 17th CPC Central Committee determined to continue to implement the goal of stable economic development, central and local government investment has continued to occupy the main aspect of social investment and still played a huge role in promoting economic development. With the continuous development of the scale of China's manufacturing industry, especially since the financial crisis, China has issued a series of industrial revitalization plans, which provide great development support for the development of China's manufacturing industry. Ihs/global insight, a U.S. economic forecasting agency, recently predicted that China will surpass the United States in terms of real industrial added value and become the world's largest manufacturing country by 2015. In 2007, the United States accounted for 20% of the global manufacturing industry, while China accounted for 12%

however, the world's largest scale cannot hide the fundamental problems of China's manufacturing industry. At present, the transformation from government supported economic growth to enterprise, resident and market supported economic growth has not been completed, especially the cautious attitude towards the world economic recovery at the G20 summit shows that China's recovery foundation will face the pressure of the international market. Not long ago, the State Council and the national development and Reform Commission and other departments shared the warning of overcapacity, which shows that China is facing great pressure of structural adjustment in the process of maintaining a stable and fast economy, and it is necessary to strengthen the adjustment of industrial structure. The reasons why China failed to transform from a large manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country are summarized as follows

first of all, most manufacturing enterprises in China have not established a modern scientific management system, and the vast majority of enterprises mainly emphasize the stable and balanced mass production of the production process, ignoring the variability of the production process; Pay attention to the construction of hardware facilities, ignoring the improvement of enterprise organization system and the improvement of personnel quality; Heavy production technology, light management technology; Attach importance to informatization and neglect integrated management

second, the product technology content is not high, the development ability is weak, the technical structure is backward, and some key technologies and major technical equipment cannot be produced in China, so they have to be solved through import

third, the market adaptability of products is poor, and the situation that they cannot meet domestic demand is serious. The equipment utilization rate of mechanical equipment manufacturing industry is also very low, and about half of the production capacity is idle

fourth, the technology of closing 4 and changing keys is basically controlled by others. According to statistics, more than half of large enterprises do not have a technology development center. Most of China's manufacturing equipment depends on imports, 80% of petrochemical equipment, 70% of car industrial equipment, textile machinery, offset printing equipment, CNC machine tools, 100% of optical fiber manufacturing equipment, and 85% of integrated circuit chip manufacturing equipment

Fifthly, the model of exchanging market for technology and capital over the years has brought great obstacles to China's industrial upgrading, especially the view of political achievements of local governments, which makes this situation more and more serious. Moreover, with the continuous rise of China's logistics costs, it directly forms a cost disadvantage for the development of China's manufacturing industry. In addition, China's fiscal and tax system needs to be improved, but human resources are still at a high level, and the development of manufacturing industry is not matched

Sixth, the current mode of energy consumption makes it take a long time for green manufacturing to become the mainstream. With the development of Global trade, China's market opening will be further expanded, but developed countries continue to maintain their manufacturing advantages by using their technology and other non-tariff measures. However, under the existing framework, the lack of corresponding measures will make this situation last for a period of time. With the development of global industrial transfer, the manufacturing industry is also changing, and there is a shift from technology centered to people-centered; The multi-layer management changes to the flat network; Change from fixed manufacturing organization to dynamic organization; The quality conformity view changes to the 1/4 satisfaction view of all steel; Shift from centralized manufacturing to decentralized manufacturing. Most of China's manufacturing industry is in the early stage of development

from the perspective of the international environment, the global economy has gradually entered recovery, but under the pressure of the continuous record high unemployment rate, countries have used various trade protection measures in order to maintain their manufacturing advantages. We can deeply experience from the signing of the tire special protection case by President Obama of the United States to the announcement of the United States Department of commerce the day before yesterday to launch anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on seamless steel pipes imported from China, This exemplary role of trade protection poses a serious threat to China's manufacturing industry

therefore, when China's manufacturing industry continues to recover, it is more necessary to accelerate industrial upgrading

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI